MUNI BOND BOND EXPOSURE - WARNING

This article by investment expert Jeff Christenson was originally published in this month's issue of WORTH magazine. It sheds light on how the economy and depressed tax revenue threaten the value of Muni Bonds, what many consider to be the safest part of their portfolio. A must read for advisors, investors and CPAs. - Ike

As State Budgets Troubles Worsen, What’s Next for Muni’s?

A new crisis, that has not yet been addressed, exists within state and municipal
budgets. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington, DC, an unprecedented level of state fiscal problems have been brought on by the worst decline in tax receipts in decades and these revenue declines show no signs of letting up.

The current recession is expected to be more severe than the last one, causing state fiscal problems to deepen and last longer than previous recessions. At least 48 states are addressing budget shortfalls for fiscal year 2010 totaling $168 billion and an unusual number of these states are still struggling to adopt a budget for fiscal year 2010, two months after the July 1st start date.

These fiscal problems are expected to continue into fiscal year 2011 and likely beyond. At least 36 states are anticipating significant deficits for fiscal year 2011, and these shortfalls are estimated at an additional $180 billion. Combine the shortfalls for the 2010 budget and those estimated for 2011, and the estimated total is at least $350 billion.

Unemployment, which peaked after the last recession at 6.3%, has already exceeded 10%, and many economists expect it to continue to rise. This continued rise in unemployment would further reduce state income tax receipts, thereby significantly increasing demand for Medicaid and other state-provided services. Also, sales tax receipts have fallen more severely than during the previous recession due to a reduction in the consumer’s access to sufficient lines of credit. This reduction in state revenue has forced states to implement a combination of spending cuts, withdrawals from reserves, and use of federal stimulus dollars. When combined with falling property tax receipts due to rising residential and commercial delinquencies and defaults, state and municipal revenues may continue to decline for some time.

Although we see a high level of risk in the municipal bond markets currently, with equity markets rallying, municipal bonds trading at premiums, and more cash moving off of the sidelines and into the markets each day, market conditions may stay positive through year-end or early next year before the sentiment reverses.

Investors who cannot afford to lose their current unrealized gains from the recent rally should be cautious and mindful of the increased risk to capital and strongly consider moving out of municipal bonds to protect capital.

During last year’s financial crisis, municipal bond prices fell by an average of 20%. The current rally has led to a recovery in pricing, with many municipal bonds again trading at premiums. This recovery in pricing is concerning, given the increasing budget shortfalls and the most extensive expense cuts by states and municipalities in history. Given the relatively low yield of most municipal bonds, the ratio of risk to reward seems out of balance. In fact, this may be one of the greatest selling opportunities in history.


Link to the article in WORTH: http://worth.com/index.php/advice?id=168&view=single

Disclaimer:

The views are those of Jeff Christenson and should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Securities and Advisory Services are offered through Multi-Financial Securities Corporation, member FINRA, SIPC. Christenson Wealth Management is not affiliated with Multi-Financial Securities Corporation.

Interesting VIDEO interview with Publisher of WORTH Magazine.

I was recently featured by WORTH magazine as one of their "Leading Wealth and Legal Advisors", I am one of only 3 in Arizona and 24 in the U.S. This is an interview with the Publisher Patrick Williams about the magazine and how it picked and vetted us to be part of the group and who gets the magazine and why.


http://tinyurl.com/kw69bv

IKE DEVJI and JEFF CHRISTENSON featured in WORTH Magazine

SEE THE WORTH FEATURE HERE: http://worth.com/index.php/advice?id=5&view=single

Arizona advisors to the Affluent Jeff Christenson and Ike Devji selected as WORTH Magazine national “Leading Wealth & Legal Advisors”

Phoenix, AZ - JUNE 2009

Jeff Christenson, a Phoenix money manager and President of Christenson Wealth Management and Asset Protection Attorney Ike Devji, Executive V.P. of the Wealthy 100, Of-Counsel with the law firm of Lodmell & Lodmell have been selected by WORTH magazine as part of the Leading Wealth & Legal Advisor Program, a vetted venue for top wealth and legal advisors nationwide. This section is designed to introduce some of the country’s leading wealth advisors and attorneys to Worth readers and provide sound guidance on how to maximize advisor relationships. Christenson and Devji will contribute professional columns for the re-launched magazine which has been designed as the essential guide book for the ultra affluent throughout the year.

“Given what’s happened in the market since October, high net worth families are making tough decisions about their investment and legal advisors and the quality of advice they’re receiving,” said WORTH Publisher Patrick Williams. “Giving investors sound information about leading wealth and legal advisors Like Ike and Jeff will help them make a more informed choice when selecting an advisor or adding to their team.”

Devji, who helps protect billions of dollars for clients internationally and who ran one the largest Asset Protection only law firms in the country, agrees, “We find that our client’s needs are increasingly sophisticated and complex as their net worth grows and their business and personal interests and exposures diversify. We often work together to find and refine solutions for each other’s clients and that’s what makes us unique, the team approach and the best of class bench we have built to serve our clients as needed on an a-la-carte basis. That’s what our clients like about us and that’s what Patrick Williams and WORTH found unique about what we do”. Devji has quietly long been the go-to resource for some of Arizona’s wealthiest residents who are interested in proactively protecting their wealth both domestically and offshore.

WORTH has undergone a complete re-invention in the past few months with an aim to enlighten, inspire and serve a select group of high net worth individuals with an avid interest in the intelligent stewardship of their personal wealth. Featuring a contemporary design and compact format (7.875 inches X 10.5 inches) and printed on paper typically reserved for books, the magazine is geared to be an elegant, practical and portable resource for dynamic CEOs, entrepreneurs and investors.

Christenson and Devji, although in different fields, often work together to meet the varied and sophisticated needs of their high net worth clients both in Arizona and across the United States. “Our clients are leaders in every imaginable industry; medicine, real-estate, executives, professional athletes and entertainers and even others in our own businesses”, said Christenson, a 15 year veteran of the financial services industry. “What they all have in common is that they have spent a great deal of time and effort becoming successful and turn to us help them stay that way”.

The duo look forward to being part of the distinguished WORTH community and continuing the work they are known for and which their clients see as more essential than ever.